Data points to resilience through policy changes and Budget concerns
Residential property transactions increased 12% between January and November 2025 compared with the same period in 2024, according to HM Revenue and Customs statistics released this week.
The figures point to a housing market that weathered significant policy changes and economic uncertainty throughout the year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, residential transactions totalled 100,350 in November, representing an 8% increase from November 2024 and a 1% rise from October 2025.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, transactions were 3% lower than in November 2024 and 12% lower than in October 2025.
Stamp duty changes fail to dampen demand
The housing market encountered two key headwinds in 2025. In April, the stamp duty nil-rate threshold was cut from £250,000 to £125,000, increasing the tax burden on buyers. The change prompted a surge in purchases in March followed by a sharp slowdown in April, but volumes picked up again in the months that followed, indicating that underlying demand remained resilient.
Uncertainty ahead of the Autumn Budget in November also raised questions about possible property tax changes. Despite these concerns, transaction levels across the 11-month period remained higher than in 2024.
“Transaction numbers continue to hold up, illustrating the housing market’s remarkable overall resilience in the face of wider economic and political concerns,” said Jason Tebb, president of OnTheMarket. “With the Budget done and dusted, uncertainty at least has been removed and those who put their moves on pause are returning to the market, encouraged by lower mortgage rates from some of the big lenders, with others expected to follow. As January progresses, well-priced homes continue to attract interest.”
Market shows signs of stabilising
Amy Reynolds, head of sales at Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts, said: “Although these transaction numbers are a little dated, reflecting a period where there was plenty of uncertainty in the market, since then there have been clear signs that the market is on a more positive footing.”
The recent base rate cut, combined with market expectations of a further reduction early this year, is bringing rates closer to the widely anticipated neutral rate of about 3% to 3.5%, according to Reynolds.
Jeremy Leaf, a north London estate agent and former RICS residential chairman, said: “Although covering activity over the past few months, these up-a-bit, down-a-bit figures demonstrate market resilience at a time of great uncertainty dominated by speculation about possible Budget tax increases.”
Tomer Aboody, director of specialist lender MT Finance, said higher transaction levels compared with a year earlier showed buyers were responding to lower mortgage rates, with many deciding the time had finally come to buy.
“Although confidence in the Government is low, needs-based buyers have to move and simply can’t wait,” said Aboody. “We will hopefully see further activity in the form of an increase in transactions in 2026 encouraged by lower bank rates.”
