UK business groups warn uncertainty is already weighing on investment and hiring
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has scheduled the spring forecast for 3 March 2026, the Treasury announced on Monday, as the government seeks to provide economic stability after months of uncertainty over fiscal policy.
The Chancellor has asked the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to prepare an economic and fiscal forecast for publication on that date, according to the Treasury. The forecast will provide an interim update on the economy and public finances but will not assess the government’s performance against its fiscal mandate.
The announcement follows criticism of Reeves in the run-up to November’s autumn budget, when months of leaks, briefings, and tax speculation contributed to market uncertainty. Britain’s economy unexpectedly contracted in October, while the Bank of England forecasts growth is on track to flatline in the fourth quarter, according to The Guardian.
Business groups have warned of a sharp fall in private sector activity at the turn of the year, with companies putting spending decisions and hiring plans on hold. Budget speculation was partly blamed on the Chancellor leaving limited headroom against her self-imposed fiscal rules, making her vulnerable to any deterioration in forecasts for the public finances.
The Treasury said the government has committed to delivering only one major fiscal event each year, at the autumn budget. The government will respond to the March forecast through a statement to Parliament.
“This approach gives families and businesses the stability and certainty they need and supports the government’s growth mission,” the Treasury said.
At November’s budget, Reeves announced she would more than double her headroom to £22bn to guard against future shocks that could force fresh spending cuts or tax rises. Uncertainty surrounding that budget also fuelled a sell-off in UK government bonds, pushing up borrowing costs for the Treasury, businesses and households, The Guardian reported.
Sky News noted the last spring statement saw the Chancellor announce welfare cuts, additional funding for construction training and defence, and a crackdown on tax avoidance.
Reeves has said the OBR is likely to publish its spring forecasts before a replacement is appointed for Richard Hughes, who resigned as chair of the independent watchdog after its November budget documents were published online almost an hour before the Chancellor’s speech, according to The Guardian.
The Treasury and the OBR are conducting leak inquiries following a series of briefings and errors linked to the autumn budget.
