Burnham won't be blocked forever – his Manchester housing record shows why brokers should care
Andy Burnham’s hopes of a swift return to Westminster have just been firmly blocked – for now. Labour’s National Executive Committee, backed by Sir Keir Starmer, has barred the Greater Manchester Mayor from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election, prompting a fierce internal row over “petty factional manoeuvring” and whether the party is sidelining one of its most popular senior figures.
For mortgage and housing professionals, though, the bigger question is not whether Burnham gets back to Parliament this year, but what might happen if – sooner or later – he does make the jump and ends up in Number 10. His by-election setback may have delayed his Westminster “comeback tour”, but given his profile, record in Manchester and enduring leadership chatter, it would be unwise to count him out of national power over the longer term.
From pledging 10,000 new council homes by 2028 and pushing for powers to suspend Right to Buy on new-build council stock, to backing the ‘A Bed Every Night’ initiative for rough sleepers and prioritising brownfield redevelopment, Burnham has consistently framed housing as both a social and economic priority for the city-region.
But how has that translated on the ground, and what might a “Burnham-style” agenda look like for the mortgage and housing markets at a national level?
A visible mayor on housing – but delivery is what counts
From a Manchester vantage point, Burnham has at least succeeded in keeping housing firmly on the agenda. That visibility in itself matters, according to Michael Street, Co-Founder at Word On The Street, a specialist mortgage brokerage based in the city.
“Candidly, he’s been one of the more visible metro mayors on housing, and that matters because you can’t fix supply if you don’t keep it on the agenda,” Street said.
Burnham’s strategic emphasis has been on using brownfield land and “building where infrastructure already exists” – an approach brokers say makes sense in principle, especially in a region where transport links and urban regeneration are so tightly interwoven.
“The push towards brownfield development and a more strategic ‘build where infrastructure already exists’ approach is broadly sensible,” Street noted.
“The things that move the dial for borrowers and investors (delivery pace, planning certainty, and viability) are harder to judge on announcements alone,” Street continued. “The market ultimately responds to what gets built, when it gets built, and whether the system gives developers (and funders) predictable timelines.”
In other words, Burnham’s record to date is strong on intent and positioning – and Manchester has arguably benefited from that focus – but mortgage market participants will continue to judge any national agenda on its ability to convert plans into real, habitable units.
Buy-to-let: more tenant security, more uncertainty for landlords?
If a future prime minister Burnham were to take his Greater Manchester instincts national, brokers would expect a noticeable shift in tone and emphasis around the private rented sector.
Street would anticipate “tenant security, affordability, and social supply” moving up the priority list – something many renters and local authorities would welcome, but which could also heighten uncertainty for some landlords.
“If a Burnham-style agenda translated nationally, I’d expect the rhetoric and policy emphasis to lean towards tenant security, affordability, and social supply,” he says. “That can increase uncertainty for landlords if it comes with tighter regulation or reduced incentives.”
For the buy-to-let market, that could accelerate trends that are already visible in many parts of the UK: smaller or highly leveraged landlords exiting the sector, a continued shift towards “professional” landlords, and an increased focus on quality – both in terms of stock and management – as regulatory and standards requirements tighten
“In practice, the likely outcome is continued consolidation: smaller or highly leveraged landlords step back, while better-capitalised ‘professional’ landlords focus on quality stock and longer-term yields,” Street explained.
“For specialist lending, uncertainty tends to mean higher stress testing, more scrutiny on exit strategies, and pricing/criteria that can tighten quickly if policy direction looks unpredictable,” Street added.
A Burnham government that pushes harder on regulation or standards without clear, stable frameworks could therefore see lenders adding more buffers into their decision-making – with consequences for landlords’ borrowing capacity and deal structures.
Affordable and social housing: the promise and the delivery gap
Burnham’s ambitions for Greater Manchester have leaned heavily on boosting council and social housing – not just through new build, but also by trying to protect existing stock. His call for powers to suspend Right to Buy on new-build council homes is emblematic of a broader philosophy: build more social homes, and stop losing them as quickly as they’re built.
At national level, a similar approach would likely be framed as a long-term solution to the housing crisis: supporting those most in need, easing pressure on the private rented sector, and creating more stable communities.
Street sees the potential benefits – but also the familiar obstacles.
“In principle, a government that prioritises council/social housebuilding could help overall supply over time, and that’s positive for the system as a whole,” he said. “But the hard bit is funding and delivery: land, labour, materials, planning capacity, and the economics for councils and housing associations.”
For brokers and lenders, the critical question isn’t whether a future Burnham administration talks up social and affordable housing – it’s whether that ambition is underpinned by real money, real reform and a realistic delivery mechanism.
“If the policy focus is matched with meaningful capital and planning reform, you could see a genuine uplift,” Street said. “If it’s not, you get headlines without volume.”
