HMRC data show a modest rise in transactions as agents report steady confidence ahead of the Chancellor's Autumn Budget
UK property transactions edged higher in September, underlining a housing market that remains steady in the face of political and economic uncertainty.
HM Revenue & Customs reported 95,980 seasonally adjusted residential transactions last month - 1 per cent higher than August and 4 per cent up on the same month last year. The non-seasonally adjusted total of 102,420 was 8 per cent higher year-on-year, though 2 per cent lower month-on-month.
The modest rise extends a gradual recovery since the spring, when activity fell following the end of temporary stamp duty thresholds. Analysts say the data point to a market adjusting to higher borrowing costs rather than retreating from them. Seasonally adjusted non-residential transactions stood at 9,910, 4 per cent lower than September 2024 and little changed from August.
Confidence on Hold
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and former RICS residential chairman, said the figures reflected a market that is “hardly changed” as buyers and sellers continue to “shrug off concerns about Budget content and a weakening labour market”. He added that the data “confirm what we are seeing on the ground – sales are not collapsing or being drastically renegotiated”, noting that “underlying confidence remains but is on hold at least until the end of November”.
That wait-and-see approach has been most pronounced among higher-value buyers, many of whom are delaying decisions until after the Chancellor’s statement.
Borrowers Regain Their Footing
Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients, said the recent consistency in borrowing costs had brought renewed confidence. “Seasonally adjusted transaction numbers recovered slightly in September as stability and consistency, as far as interest rates are concerned, are encouraging activity and enabling borrowers to plan ahead with more confidence,” he said.
He added that several lenders had reduced their mortgage rates in recent days, and while “the era of rock-bottom rates may be long gone, borrowers seem to have adjusted to this.”
High-End Market Awaits Clarity
At the top end of the market, agents say uncertainty about potential tax changes is weighing on sentiment. Amy Reynolds, head of sales at Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts, said “some buyers and sellers, particularly those at the higher end of the market, [are] sitting tight ahead of the Budget”.
She warned that “drawn-out uncertainty over potential tax changes is freezing activity and costing the Treasury in lost stamp duty”, and argued that “stability, clarity and confidence are what the market needs most right now.”
Reynolds added that her agency has “already seen an exodus of wealthier Londoners moving abroad” and warned that if that trend continues, “it’s not just the housing market that will suffer but the wider UK economy.”
SIDEBAR - Industry Reaction
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Jason Tebb, president of OnTheMarket, said the figures suggest “the market continues to move in the right direction”, with a stable rate environment helping to support confidence.
“The market remains remarkably resilient despite wider economic and political concerns,” he said. “Any changes introduced in next month’s Budget must work for the market as a whole.” -
Tomer Aboody, director at MT Finance, noted that speculation over property taxes is prompting some hesitation.
“With the Budget coming up and more taxes on the horizon, this transaction data suggests that some are waiting before they make their move,” he said. -
Melanie Spencer, growth director at Target Group, said recent stability should not be mistaken for a surge in confidence.
“At first glance, this might look as though the market is a little more resilient than it has been. I am not sure that’s the case and I am certainly not signing up for any cautious optimism,” she said.
