First-time buyers are retreating and sellers are holding firm on price, as confidence gives way to caution
The post-summer lift estate agents usually count on has failed to appear, with a marked slowdown spreading across the UK housing market. In the South East, brokers say transactions are stalling and confidence is fragile as buyers and sellers wait to see whether Chancellor Rachel Reeves will raise property taxes in next month’s Budget.
Figures from Rightmove show the average asking price for new listings in September stood at £370,257, up just 0.4 % month-on-month but 0.1 % lower year-on-year. The usual autumn bounce has failed to materialise, with buyer enquiries about 5 % below last year’s level.
South East stalls as affordability bites
The slowdown is most pronounced in southern England, where stretched affordability and growing stock levels are giving buyers the upper hand.
Rightmove data show homes in the South East now take around 63 days on average to find a buyer, compared with 51 days nationally.
According to Zoopla, buyer demand is 18 % lower than a year ago, and the average selling-price discount has widened to 5 % in the South East, versus 3.8 % nationally. For many agents, the region has clearly swung to a buyers’ market.
‘Without first-time buyers, the market stalls’
Brokers on the ground describe a market caught between optimism and adjustment. Alan Greenin, of Marble Financial Planning, said the shortage of first-time buyers was “stalling” the chains that underpin activity. There are “plenty of people wanting to move and plenty of homes for sale,” he said, “but not enough first-time buyers to get those chains moving.”
He added that many vendors have yet to adapt: “Prices are creeping up again. Even properties that need work are often priced as though the renovations are already done, and that makes them far less appealing. It’s absolutely a buyer’s market right now. I always tell my clients to try their luck with a cheeky offer, you never know who might say yes.”
Cooling pace, not collapse
Others see recalibration rather than retreat. Michelle Niziol, of IMS Property Group, said activity in the South East “has cooled slightly compared to the rapid pace we saw in the post-pandemic years,” as higher mortgage rates and the cost of living make buyers more cautious.
She said well-priced homes are still selling briskly, particularly in areas with good schools and transport links, while overpriced properties linger. “Cash buyers and portfolio investors are taking advantage of less competition to secure quality assets at sensible prices,” Niziol added. “Overall, this is a more normalised market, less frenzy, more strategy. And that’s no bad thing, as stability breeds sustainability.”
Denni Tyson, of Pia Financial Solutions, agreed that conditions have become more measured but warned that valuations are playing a larger role in slowing deals. “I am finding things quite slower than usual, but that does happen this time of year,” he said. “Valuations are becoming a key part of the process, with down-valuations being seen especially in London and the outer South East.
“Contrast that with those clients whose mortgage is up for renewal, it’s going to be a busy year next year with many of the ‘golden rates’ coming up for renewal, and this will impact households. The element of advice will become more and more invaluable as the costliest monthly direct debit will be impacted significantly.”
Data confirm the divide
Official figures from the ONS / HM Land Registry show UK average sold prices rose by 2.8 % in the year to July 2025, but the regional gap has widened. The North East led growth at 7.9 %, while the South East edged up just 0.2 %, with the average home now priced at about £440,000.
At the higher end, Savills reports that prime regional prices fell 1.9% in Q2 2025 and 2.7% year-on-year, with transactions in £1 million-plus homes down roughly 10%.
Outlook tied to the Budget
Speculation about new levies on high-value homes and changes to capital-gains exemptions has already cooled sentiment in southern England. While the Treasury says the Budget will “strike the right balance between funding public services and supporting growth,” even modest tax adjustments could prolong the caution that has defined this year’s market.
For brokers, the challenge now is to help clients navigate a market that has rediscovered its balance. The frenzy has gone, replaced by pragmatism and, for those who adapt quickly, opportunity.
