Intermediary poll highlights policy concerns ahead of base rate decision
Government action is viewed as the leading threat to the mortgage market by a majority of intermediaries surveyed by specialist lender Black & White Bridging.
The lender questioned 100 brokers operating in the bridging space, asking them to rank a series of risks to the wider mortgage market, including Bank of England base rate moves, consumer affordability, first-time buyer activity, government policy and property affordability.
Just over half of respondents (53%) identified government policy as the single greatest risk to the market, while a further 28% placed it as the second most significant concern.
“Clearly, the sector has little faith in the current government,” said Damien Druce (pictured right), chief operating officer at Black & White Bridging. “Given the complete shambles the Chancellor made of the Budget, I’d say they are bang on the money.
“Unfortunately, the chaos looks set to continue, with Reeves failing to rule out further tax rises in the Spring. She has already alienated landlords and those with higher value properties while offering nothing to support first-time buyers. Brokers have learnt the hard way that this anti-business, anti-growth government is not to be trusted.”
Consumer affordability emerged as the next most pressing risk in the Black & White research, with almost one in three participants (31%) rating it as the main threat to the mortgage industry. Bank of England base rate decisions were ranked third, cited by 11% as the primary risk factor.
“Consumer affordability and the base rate, via inflation, are both impacted by changes to government policy,” Druce pointed out. “So, this all comes back to the same core issue.
“It remains to be seen what impact the Budget will have on inflation and the thinking of the Monetary Policy Committee. But for these factors to become less of a risk, a base rate cut must be implemented this week, enabling interest rates to come down as we head into the new year, and getting the sector off to a strong start in 2026.”
The poll also suggested that the first-time buyer segment is not currently regarded as a major danger to market stability. Respondents viewed it as a relatively modest risk compared with policy and affordability. Access to suitable property was ranked even lower as a potential problem.
“Once it was a huge problem, but pent-up demand, due to Budget hesitancy, has led to plenty of property being available and on the market,” Druce said. “As transactions begin to pick up, this may become more of an issue, especially if interest rates drop.
“But with landlords selling up in droves, we have a long way to go before property availability becomes an issue again.”
Despite the unease around government decisions, Black & White Bridging said recent polling among bridging professionals showed that 82% expect their confidence in the market to rise over the next year, supported by hopes of greater economic certainty and stability after the Budget.
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