Brokers say months of leaks have frozen buyers, spooked landlords and left the sector desperate for clarity as the Chancellor prepares to speak
After months of policy leaks and fiscal kite-flying, the mortgage industry approaches Budget day not with anticipation, but with exhaustion. Brokers say the prolonged drip-feed of proposals has paralysed decision-making and left advisers struggling to guide clients through half-formed ideas and shifting expectations.
Craig Head, Head of Mortgage at Mortgage Required, sums up the prevailing mood as one of “relief, that it’s now upon us and the time for deliberation and speculation will finally be over”. The “drip feeding over the past few months”, he said, has left brokers “fatigued” and clients unsure how to act. “This has left the market as a whole in a state of malaise… the hope is that regardless of what is announced the fact that it is confirmed is enough to get the market moving again.”
Chains stall as buyers await clarity
The impact is already being felt on live transactions. Mike Powell, of Mike Powell Mortgages, said the “constant drip feeding of potential tax rises has caused huge uncertainty in the housing market”. He is currently involved in a chain of three properties that is ready to exchange and complete, but one buyer is refusing to proceed as they wait “to see what’s happening with SDLT”.
“All markets like certainty,” Powell said, “especially the housing market in the UK.”
Landlords braced as NIC threat looms
Speculation surrounding landlord taxation has become a major pressure point. The possibility — still not dismissed — that National Insurance could be applied to rental income has rattled investors.
“One area of concern that hasn’t been fully dismissed is the possibility of National Insurance being levied on rental income,” says Euan Stewart, of Perth Mortgage Centre. “If introduced, this would significantly affect landlords and could ripple into the wider housing market.”
Rebecca Wilkins, of Cutting Edge Mortgages, warns that landlords would be among the most exposed groups. “NIC on landlords will have the biggest impact with property selling likely, less BTL purchases and general portfolio reconfigurations,” she says.
She also highlights emerging challenges for would-be homeowners, warning that with frozen tax thresholds “dragging many into higher tax brackets”, deposit saving may slow “even further”. Estate agent partners, she notes, “already state there has been a slowdown” in first-time-buyer activity.
Housing has ‘not been mentioned hugely in a positive aspect’
For some brokers, the speculation around the Budget has become more destabilising than any eventual policy. Martin Reynolds of SimplyBiz Mortgages says the industry is now trapped in a cycle of leaks that sap confidence long before details are confirmed.
Reynolds says the volume of pre-Budget speculation has become counterproductive: “I think after the amount of pre-press that now happens on a budget… please tell us so that we can give up all these press leaks,” he said. “That lack of clarity does stop people doing things in the economy because they don't know what's coming or they're confused about what's coming.”
Reynolds adds that “housing hasn't been mentioned hugely in a positive aspect”, with most references relating to “taxation, income tax for buy-to-let”. He notes that with so many measures having been floated, “it could be nothing is spoken about in housing or there could be a lot”, saying he will “be glad when it's 5pm tomorrow” and the industry can finally assess the actual measures.
Industry hopes certainty will be enough to restart activity
Across the mortgage market, the dominant hope is no longer for bold reform or generous incentives, but simply for an end to uncertainty. Months of rumours have cooled sentiment, stalled chains, unnerved landlords and delayed decisions at every level.
Whether the Budget itself brings good news or not, brokers say clarity is now the most valuable commodity of all.
