ONS data shows population growth at near-record highs, but brokers warn it is rental market pressures and lack of supply that are shutting buyers out
Fresh figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirm that the UK population reached 69.3 million in mid-2024, after one of the largest annual rises in decades. Net migration, which accounted for almost all of the 755,000 increase, remains the dominant driver of growth.
Yet for mortgage professionals, the more immediate concern is not the number of arrivals but the impact of a broken rental market on affordability.
Migration figures in context
The ONS recorded 1.23 million people moving to the UK in the year to June 2024, with nearly half a million leaving. Net migration of 738,700, while down on the previous year, is still historically high. England saw the steepest population growth, while Wales and Scotland recorded more deaths than births, underlining their ageing demographics.
Despite the political focus on migration, brokers argue that the housing market’s greatest challenge lies closer to home. Carolyn Dunion, of McKendry Dunion, told Mortgage Introducer that she does not view migration as the biggest threat, suggesting instead that the rental sector is the root of the problem. “Landlords have been taxed in so many ways that many have left the market and very few are buying in,” she said, warning that this scarcity of rental properties is driving rents to levels that prevent tenants from saving deposits.
Affordability squeeze for borrowers
This tightening picture is already feeding through into mortgage demand. First-time buyers are increasingly reliant on guarantor products, shared ownership, and higher loan-to-value lending, while stretched affordability tests remain a barrier for many. Lenders are also preparing for a rise in later-life borrowing, as younger households spend more years renting before buying.
Dunion added that the affordability challenge is compounded by supply shortages. “Availability must be addressed by incentivising the building of new homes,” she said, emphasising that while migration adds to demand, it is “far from the main driver” of the current crisis.
What it means for lenders
For mortgage providers, the ONS statistics serve as a reminder that demand will remain resilient. The question is whether affordability support, through product innovation, government schemes, or more flexible underwriting, can keep pace with the needs of a generation locked out of ownership by rental costs.
Migration may be part of the mix, but it is policy decisions on taxation, supply and affordability support that will ultimately determine the future of homeownership.
