Fixed-rate pricing moves up amid energy-driven inflation worries and market volatility
Average fixed mortgage rates rose on Monday, with some in the market pointing to “Trumpflation” — a catch-all term for inflation pressure linked to Donald Trump’s policy stance and rhetoric, now being amplified by a jump in oil prices since the Iranian war began.
Higher energy costs can feed into inflation expectations and borrowing costs, influencing swap rates and the pricing of fixed-rate mortgages.
Price comparison website Moneyfacts reported that the average two-year fixed residential rate increased to 5.20% this morning, from 5.10% on Friday. It was 4.84% on the eve of last month’s US-Israeli war on Iran. Average pricing for five-year fixed deals also moved up, to 5.25% from 5.19%.
Over the past several weeks, lenders have reduced mortgage product options, with average shelf-lives dropping to 14 days, forcing borrowers to act fast. Moneyfacts recorded a decline in residential product availability, with the number of mortgages on the market down to 6,972 on Monday from 7,106 at the end of last week.
The repricing comes alongside firmer market expectations that the Bank of England will not cut rates this year, with some in the City now seeing Bank Rate rising back to 4% from 3.75% by summer 2027. Global investment bank Goldman Sachs, however, still expects two rate cuts this year.
In bond markets, prices rose and yields fell across UK government debt. The benchmark 10-year gilt yield was down eight basis points to 4.73%, even as the surge in oil prices since the conflict began kept inflation concerns in focus.
Paul Nowak, secretary general of the Trades Union Congress, said “the government must stand ready to pull out all the stops and shield households and firms from this global shock.”
“Working people are being hit with a Donald Trump-made cost-of-living crisis,” he added. “It’s right that the Prime Minister has acted quickly to support those most acutely affected by rising energy prices.
“This illegal war and ongoing chaos will continue to threaten living standards. More support will likely be needed to stave off ‘Trumpflation’.”
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