A Mortgage Introducer poll shows a clear majority of brokers are anticipating a base rate rise this week
The mortgage industry is bracing for a rate rise. A Mortgage Introducer LinkedIn poll of 143 professionals reveals that 65% expect the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to hike the base rate at its scheduled November 5 meeting — a level of conviction that reflects how dramatically sentiment has shifted in recent months.
Just 31% of respondents expect the MPC to hold, while 1% back a cut and 3% say the outcome is too close to call.
The decision, due at 12:00 GMT on Thursday, will be accompanied by a new Monetary Policy Report — the first since the MPC held at 3.75% in a 6–3 vote in September, when three members already dissented in favour of a rise to 4%.
Inflation moves the needle
The backdrop to Thursday’s decision has shifted considerably since that September hold. UK inflation rose to 3.5% in September — well above the Bank’s 2% target — prompting economists and major financial institutions to sharpen their forecasts.
Gerard Boon, mortgage expert and managing director of Boon Brokers, said inflation was the key driver behind the industry’s expectations. “The driver for this expectation is the fact that inflation has stayed above the Bank of England’s target of 2% for some time now. They last achieved their target in September 2024. Given the concerns for extended conflict in the Middle East between Iran and the United States, which could further restrict our supply of energy in the UK, the BoE will be concerned that inflation could rise further without action.”
David Hollingworth, associate director, communications at L&C Mortgages, said the weight of evidence was tilting the MPC towards action. “It feels like a decision by the MPC to take action and increase interest rates is drawing nearer, after so far deciding to hold off. The fact that energy costs remain elevated and the conflict in the Middle East [is] munresolved means that it could be enough to shift the balance in favour of a rise now.”
Goldman Sachs turned more hawkish in September, forecasting a 25-basis-point rate hike in November 2026 as inflation persisted and growth held up — having previously expected rates to remain unchanged throughout the year. Barclays and UBS Global Research similarly expect the Bank of England to hike in November, saying rising inflation risks point to a quicker resumption of policy tightening.
The 31% who expect a hold
The fact that nearly a third of poll respondents are still backing a hold shows that there’s still a degree of uncertainty around the Bank’s impending decision. In September the MPC voted 6–3 to hold, meaning a majority of sitting members were not yet ready to tighten. Inflationary pressures, while elevated, are partly imported — energy prices and global supply chain dynamics that the MPC cannot directly control.
Hollingworth said a hike would still carry weight even if it was widely anticipated. “Although this won’t be unexpected, it will still have a big bearing on borrower confidence. Fixed rates have already risen in anticipation of rising interest rates, but so far a hold in base rate has offered some comfort to those on variable and tracker rates. More generally, this will signal ongoing uncertainty and comes at a time when the cost of living has been rising again, so is bound to hit already fragile consumer confidence.”
What this means for brokers and their clients
For mortgage professionals, Thursday’s decision is the most consequential lever of the year.
Some lenders have not waited for the MPC’s verdict and have already repriced fixed-rate products upwards in anticipation. Those who have not yet locked in rates face the prospect of sharper increases if the MPC follows the market consensus and moves.
Boon said brokers should prepare for consumer anxiety but also be ready to manage it. “I would expect some form of panic from mortgage borrowers. Our broker team is aware that it is our job to educate clients on the fact that many mortgage rates, such as fixed-rate products, are not directly linked to the BoE base rate. Instead, they largely correlate with swap rates, which can be perceived as a measure of investor confidence in the UK economy.”
He added that it was plausible for fixed-rate mortgage products to actually fall following a base rate rise. “If it results in increased confidence in the UK economy’s ability to control inflation, swap rates could fall in upcoming months."
Whether Thursday brings a rise or a hold, the direction of travel now looks set to be firmly upward. If those forecasts prove correct, brokers face an extended period of managing client expectations in a tightening cycle.
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