What these shifts mean for brokers' strategies — and where opportunities are emerging
As the UK mortgage market enters late 2025, brokers are navigating a mix of opportunity and uncertainty. Swap rates and fixed-rate pricing have eased in recent weeks, offering some relief after a volatile year. HSBC has also surprised the market by announcing that it will lend up to 6.5 times the borrower's income multiple for selected premier customers.
With the Autumn Budget scheduled for 26 November, policy decisions could influence borrower behaviour, lender appetite, and product availability. Recognising how these three pillars shape the market is essential for brokers to remain competitive. Strong market awareness and a quick response will likely differentiate proactive advisers from those who merely react to change.
Falling fixed rates and swap-rate relief
One of the most significant recent developments is the fall in swap rates, which support many fixed mortgage products. As swap rates fall, lenders have lowered fixed-rate prices, making borrowing more affordable for buyers and those looking to remortgage.
Currently, two-year fixes average around 4.94%, with five-year deals at roughly 5.00%. Clients with a 25% deposit can access five-year rates at sub 4%. The shift reflects changing investor expectations around inflation and economic growth. For some borrowers, this has reopened conversations that were previously on hold due to affordability constraints.
For brokers, this offers a clear opportunity to help clients secure competitive rates while conditions remain favourable. Nonetheless, the market still seems fragile — rates might rise if sentiment shifts or if the 26 November Budget triggers inflation concerns through increased public spending or borrowing. Lenders are very responsive to market changes, so acting quickly and communicating potential risks keeps clients informed and prepared for any rate fluctuations.
Income-multiple stretch: HSBC and the X6.5 narrative
HSBC’s announcement that it will lend up to 6.5 times income for Premier customers has surprised the market. This applies only to clients with at least £100k income or savings/investments and a minimum 10% deposit, with applications still subject to strict affordability assessment.
For brokers working with high-earning clients this creates opportunities to access higher borrowing. However, affordability must be stress-tested against potential rate increases or changes in income and outgoings. It’s also important to manage clients’ expectations — these multiples remain selective, not standard market practice. With property prices far outpacing earnings, this could help some borrowers finally purchase the property they want. It may also signal a shift towards higher multiples for top-earning clients — though, if not handled carefully, it also raises questions around long-term risk.
The upcoming Budget: timing, risk and opportunity
The Chancellor’s Autumn Budget on 26 November marks the third major pillar for brokers and clients. Budget announcements can quickly influence bond markets, gilt yields, swap rates, and lender behaviour, while also triggering potential changes to property tax or first-time buyer incentives.
Brokers should closely monitor swap rates and market sentiment in the run-up to the Budget. Any signal of increased government borrowing, for example, could push gilt yields and swap rates higher, feeding through into fixed-rate pricing.
Tax changes affecting investment property or buy-to-let could also reshape demand. One rumoured proposal under Treasury consideration is extending National Insurance to include rental income — a move aimed at taxing what the government views as “unearned income” from landlords. Despite an effort to plug the spending gap, such a shift would increase pressure on an already fragile segment of the market, requiring brokers to help clients reassess their property finance strategies and product choices.
Conversely, the Budget could introduce measures to support first-time buyers. While nothing is confirmed, several commentators see this as politically likely. First-time buyers are a key electoral demographic, and the government will be trying to strike a balance between fiscal restraint and support for homeownership. Any announcement that improves deposit affordability or reduces transaction costs could trigger a surge in buyer activity — especially in early 2026.
Conclusion
Falling fixed rates, stretched income multiples for select borrowers and the uncertainty surrounding the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget are just three dynamics shaping the market. Brokers who combine market insight with scenario planning and proactive client communication will stand out and impress their clients. Increasingly, borrowers aren’t just looking for a mortgage quote — they want informed guidance and clarity in a shifting market.
Adrian Anderson is the founder and managing director of Anderson Harris - an award-winning mortgage brokerage which provides residential mortgage and mortgage protection advice. With more than 20 years’ experience advising high-net-worth clients and complex borrowers, Adrian is recognised in the Spear’s 500 as a top-recommended mortgage adviser. He is also regularly consulted by national media for insight on the mortgage and property market.
