Mixed messages can confuse and the notion of a singular UK housing market is problematic
Search for “UK house prices” and you will be met with a familiar split-screen. One set of figures suggests prices are rising; another claims the opposite. For the public this can be bewildering, but for brokers, who are expected to make sense of it all, the apparent contradictions can feel relentless.
In reality, though, the data is far less at odds than it appears. The issue is not the reliability of the numbers, but the assumption that any one dataset can describe a market as varied and multi-layered as this one.
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Part of the confusion stems from the fact that each major index captures a different point in the buying and selling journey. They are not rivals, but sequential snapshots. National averages add another layer of muddiness, flattening dozens of local markets moving at very different speeds. And beyond the published figures lies a source of insight no index captures: the day-to-day conversations brokers have with clients, often the earliest signal of change. Against that backdrop, the data begins to look much more coherent.
The measures behind the headlines
The indices often diverge because they measure different things. For brokers, the distinctions matter:
- Nationwide & Halifax – Based on mortgage approvals. These figures move early and reflect sentiment and buyer activity, but exclude cash buyers and mirror each lender’s customer base.
- ONS / Land Registry – Based on completed sales, including cash purchases. This is the most comprehensive and accurate record of final prices, though published with a two-month lag.
- Rightmove – Tracks asking prices of new listings. A good measure of seller confidence rather than achieved values.
- Zoopla – Combines listings, mortgage data and modelling, sitting between sentiment and completed-sale reality.
Seen together, these are not contradictory readings; they represent the market at different stages.
Even before methodology enters the discussion, the notion of a singular “UK housing market” is problematic. Matthew Arena of Brilliant Group believes the focus on national figures obscures the reality on the ground. “House prices are always local, not national,” he said. “Local and regional data and relationships drive our understanding of the market. All figures, even the national stats, are prone to variability when transaction levels are low.”
This reduced volume, still below pre-pandemic norms, means small shifts in certain areas can distort national averages. Arena argues that what appear to be conflicting signals are often a sign of something else entirely. “Where indicators conflict it would imply that prices are stable, which is what the general picture appears to be from our perspective,” he said. “This is supported by stability in the rental sector.”
Timing also plays its part. Mortgage-based indices detect shifts early. Asking-price measures reflect confidence or caution among sellers. Completion data shows decisions made months earlier. Mark Harrington of L&C Mortgages says this sequencing explains much of the supposed contradiction.
“Each house price index can tell a different story,” he said. “The Land Registry gives us accurate detail based on done deals but that carries a lag factor. A more immediate temperature can be seen in the Nationwide and Halifax indices. Rightmove looks at asking prices to gauge whether sellers are fighting buyers off or having to reduce price.” The task, he argues, is not to choose between them. “Taking from each of these in the round will paint the best overall picture, rather than looking at one in isolation.”
Beyond the datasets sits the early barometer brokers know well: client behaviour. “Brokers will probably already have a good idea of what's happening,” Harrington said, “as they will pick up the concerns of customers as quickly as anyone based on feedback and enquiry levels.”
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That frontline view is often a more immediate market indicator than any index. “To be honest, it’s not that I trust one [index] over another,” said Ed Payne of Family First Finance. “It’s more that lender figures and RICS stats seem to be so out of date. The current market is so reactive – we can be rushed off our feet one month and quiet the next. The best barometer is the telephone and our enquiry form.”
This broker perspective sits alongside broader context. Lender pricing has steadied as volatility in swap rates has eased, contributing to a more settled environment than sensational headlines suggest. Fall-through rates and time-on-market, practical indicators brokers monitor every day, have also been relatively consistent.
For clients who feel overwhelmed by conflicting headlines, a few simple explanations often help. Each index measures a different part of the process, so alignment is not the norm. Local dynamics matter far more than national averages. And small monthly movements are just that – small, and rarely evidence of a structural shift.
