Rabid speculation is triggering flashbacks to 2022's volatility
With 12 days until the Budget, brokers say nervousness is beginning to creep back into the mortgage market as speculation mounts over where the Chancellor will look to raise revenue. While few expect a repeat of the 2022 mini-Budget, the memory of that shock still shapes broker sentiment, and many warn that even small tax adjustments could have outsized effects on affordability and borrower confidence.
Affordability at risk as swap rates loom large
The biggest concern is not a single policy lever, but the wider market reaction. For some, the central risk sits squarely with funding costs.
As Matthew Arena, managing director at Brilliant Group, puts it, “the biggest concern is the impact on swap rates.” Even modest tax announcements could unsettle markets if the fiscal picture looks weak. “Swap rates affect affordability for the market as a whole,” he said. “It’s a catch-22, a strong Budget is needed to maintain these.”
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Arena stresses that brokers are not in the business of guessing games. “There is very little to be gained in second-guessing the forthcoming Budget,” he said. Instead, brokers are focusing on fundamentals and the areas they can influence.
Yet uncertainty is filtering down to borrowers, splitting them between those who can absorb volatility and those who are becoming visibly anxious.
Property tax rumours
That anxiety is not unfounded. According to Alan MacKenzie, founder of Your Next Step, the psychological “scar tissue” from 2022 continues to shape behaviour. “There’s definitely a lingering nervousness following the impact of the 2022 mini-Budget,” he said.
With talk swirling around property taxes, buy-to-let measures and capital gains reform, MacKenzie said the industry is preparing for movement on multiple fronts, even if it hopes nothing materialises. “We’re all hoping for stability rather than further changes,” he said. “Confidence has only just started to return.”
The sense of caution is shared by lenders and technology providers, who see how policy signals feed directly into borrower behaviour. Reuben Thompson, VP of product innovation at Acre, said the anxiety is understandable, but warns that the bigger picture matters.
“It’s not unusual for people to feel anxious ahead of a budget, especially when it comes to their home and finances,” he said. “But the purpose of the Budget is to keep the economy stable, and that stability is what keeps lending affordable.”
He added that even if some households pay “a little more tax”, it may still be a net positive if it supports economic confidence and prevents rate pressure from building. Thompson said housing and mortgages are expected to feature heavily, with implications across the board, from first-time buyers to landlords. From his vantage point, the risk sits in anything that might inadvertently choke supply. “We’ve already seen uncertainty around potential CGT changes influence behaviour in the buy-to-let sector,” he said, noting that landlords have been boosting liquidity and avoiding unnecessary risk since last autumn.
He believes property taxation is ripe for reform, with council tax long overdue a modernisation, but warns that poorly designed changes could have unintended consequences.
On CGT, Thompson offered a cautionary example, “Applying CGT to all primary residences could have real consequences for market mobility. If changes were focused only on very high-value homes, the impact would be far narrower.” He also expects an exit tax for non-doms, though he notes its impact would be confined to the top end of the market.
Regional markets brace for stamp duty fallout
In regional markets, anxiety is amplified by tight stock and fragile chains. Sam Fox, director of Refresh Mortgage Network, said stamp duty is the biggest immediate flashpoint. “If they don’t get it right, it could put the brakes on a lot of transactions over the next six months,” he said. With second-hand stock limited in his area, buyers are already stuck waiting for clarity.
Fox recalls how quickly the market collapsed after the last big fiscal shock, “Many interest rates shot up to about 7% overnight, it completely tanked the industry. Everyone’s worried about what comes next.”
Across the sector, brokers stress that the market can take reform, it just can’t take instability. A Budget that delivers clarity and credible signals would give borrowers confidence to move again. A misstep risks undoing months of slow, hard-won recovery.
Brokers are prepared for policy shifts, but not for another jolt to confidence. Their message ahead of the Budget is unanimous: keep it steady, and keep the surprises to a minimum.
