A 2% rise in October completions points to a housing market proving more resilient than expected
UK property transactions rose again in October, defying the nervousness that had crept into the market ahead of the Autumn Budget and reinforcing the view that the housing market is proving more resilient than many expected.
HMRC data show the seasonally adjusted total rose to 98,450, up 2% on both September 2025 and the same month last year. The non-seasonally adjusted figure reached 116,230, a 13% monthly uplift and a 4% annual increase. Although completions reflect sales agreed two to four months earlier, the latest data point to a market that continues to move despite the uncertainty surrounding the Autumn Budget.
Market steadies as October transactions rise
Jason Tebb, president of OnTheMarket, said October’s uplift was “perhaps surprising given the uncertainty surrounding the housing market at the time but illustrates its resilience in the face of wider economic and political concerns.” He added that “the series of interest rate reductions over the past 16 months has provided reassurance for buyers and sellers, and improved affordability,” with the latest rate hold “suggest[ing] a stable rate environment which is further helping buyers plan ahead.”
“With the Budget out of the way, uncertainty has been removed,” Tebb said. “Buyers and sellers can make decisions with confidence… While it is a shame that a chance was missed to provide some impetus to the market via support for first-time buyers and to boost transactions, the market’s dogged resilience continues.”
Agents report a softer run-up to the Budget
Some agents say the slowdown ahead of the Budget has not yet appeared in the figures. Amy Reynolds, head of sales at Antony Roberts, said: “While not yet reflected in these official, yet dated, figures, agents reported that activity slowed ahead of the Budget and now we are in the run-up to Christmas, we don’t expect this to improve significantly.”
“We are hoping that the market will pick up in the New Year,” she said, “particularly as the measures in the Budget didn’t turn out to be as bad as many feared. Unfortunately, nothing has got cheaper when it comes to moving, particularly stamp duty… until there is intervention to stimulate it.”
Brokers report similar patterns. Mark Harris, chief executive of SPF Private Clients, said: “Transaction numbers picked up in October as stability and consistency, as far as interest rates are concerned, encouraged buyers and sellers to press ahead with their plans.”
“Lenders continue to trim their mortgage rates,” he said, adding that further small reductions are likely. “With perhaps two or three further base rate cuts expected… it’s good news for borrowers planning a move or remortgage in early 2026.”
Affordability improves but support still needed
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and former RICS residential chairman, said: “Resilient transaction numbers suggest housing market activity will continue even without government assistance, which was so lacking in the Budget.”
He added: “Transactions are a better barometer of market health than more volatile house prices… any drop off has a multiplier effect on the wider economy.”
Leaf said affordability is slowly improving. “As affordability gradually improves, especially with another base rate cut looking likely, we expect transaction numbers to pick up,” he said. Mansion Tax changes, he noted, should have “minimal” impact.
Tomer Aboody, director of MT Finance, took a more cautious view. “With the Budget lacking any form of positive encouragement for the property market, it is difficult to see how transactions numbers will meaningfully improve,” he said. “In the scheme of things, transaction numbers are low as the cost of moving is still very high.”
He added: “An interest rate reduction early in 2026, if not at next month’s meeting, would go some way to encouraging more activity.”
Despite differing views, October’s figures show a market still moving. After months of uncertainty, activity appears to be settling into a period of cautious stability.
