RECAP: How the Bank of England voted to raise rates

Note: This is a live blog. Please refresh the page to receive the latest updates.

That's a wrap!

That just about does it for today's live blog. The Bank of England has raised rates for the first time in more than three years – moving the base rate to 4% in an 8–1 vote, with Catherine Mann the sole dissenter pushing for a more forceful 50 basis point rise.

As always, make sure to follow Mortgage Introducer throughout the day for more reaction to the decision and what it means for the mortgage market. Thanks for following along!

12:30 p.m.: Bailey backs rise but warns more may follow

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said in today's minutes that the case for a 25 basis point rise was clear – but left the door open to further action if the Middle East conflict continues to drive energy prices higher.

"In view of the news, the case is clear for a 25-basis point rise now," he said. "Without news which softens the risks to inflationary pressures, I can see the argument for a further increase in rates and thereafter taking a more conditional approach, dependent on the evidence on energy prices and inflation dynamics."

Bailey acknowledged that indirect and second-round effects have not yet emerged, and that firms are currently absorbing cost pressures through margin compression and energy hedging – but warned those buffers are only temporary. His judgement rested on a stark condition: "Put simply, it requires real progress towards settling the conflict in the Middle East. Absent this, risks to energy prices, and so to inflation, are to the upside."

The lone dissenter pushing for more was Catherine Mann, who voted for a 50 basis point rise to 4.25%. She argued the economy had already crossed into a high inflation, tight labour market regime where second-round effects were more likely to become embedded. "From a risk management and credibility perspective, a 50-basis point hike in Bank Rate is 'good policy'," she said, pointing to five years of above-target inflation averaging 4.7% and CPI projected to reach 4.9% by mid-2027.

Several of the eight who voted for 25 basis points were explicit that today's move is unlikely to be the last. Huw Pill said a single hike "is unlikely to be sufficient" and that more tightening would be needed in the near term. Megan Greene said additional hikes would likely be required, while Clare Lombardelli said there was likely to be a case for a further increase "in the near term." Alan Taylor offered the most cautious framing, describing today's decision as a "risk-management 'one-for-now' insurance hike" and warning markets not to read it as the start of a pre-set hiking cycle. "The next move could be up, down, or sideways," he said.

12:20 p.m.: Industry reacts to the Bank of England's rate rise

The verdict from mortgage professionals is broadly accepting of today's rise – but several are questioning whether one move will be enough, and what it means for borrowers on the ground.

Duncan Kreeger, CEO at TAB, was among the most critical voices, arguing the decision represented a failure of government rather than a necessary act of monetary policy. "Raising rates punishes borrowers for the government's lack of discipline," he said, pointing to public sector pay growth running at more than double the private sector rate. "The Bank should have held its nerve, held rates, and put the onus back where it belongs: on the Treasury."

John Phillips, CEO at Just Mortgages and Spicerhaart, took a more measured view, urging brokers not to let clients conflate the base rate with mortgage rates. "Mortgage rates and the base rate are not joined at the hip," he said, noting that several lenders had cut rates in recent days as swap rates eased. "While rates do remain volatile, options are still out there – now is the time for brokers to be front-footed, proactive and visible."

Steve Cox, chief commercial officer at Fleet Mortgages, acknowledged the MPC's reasoning but raised questions about the timing, warning that attempting to get ahead of inflation risked creating problems for an economy already struggling to generate meaningful growth. "Whether today's increase ultimately proves to be the right decision remains open to question," he said. For buy-to-let landlords specifically, he urged those looking to refinance or purchase to explore available options now rather than waiting.

Ryan McGrath, director of second charge mortgages at Pepper Money UK, sought to reassure borrowers that today's move would not automatically feed through into higher mortgage rates. "The first rate rise in more than three years puts borrowing costs back in the spotlight, but today's decision will not have come as a surprise to financial markets," he said. "Expectations of a rise will already have been largely reflected in swap rates and mortgage pricing, so borrowers shouldn't assume today's move automatically translates into an equivalent increase in mortgage rates."

12:14 p.m.: What it all means for mortgages

Here's MI's Fergal McAlinden on the Bank of England's latest decision, and its implications for the UK mortgage market:

12:08 p.m.: Key takeaways from the Bank of England's November announcement

The MPC has voted to raise Bank Rate to 4.00% – and the minutes make for significant reading. Here's what stood out:

The decision

The vote was 8–1 in favour of a 25 basis point rise. Eight members – Andrew Bailey, Sarah Breeden, Swati Dhingra, Megan Greene, Clare Lombardelli, Huw Pill, Dave Ramsden and Alan Taylor – backed a rise to 4%. The sole dissenter was Catherine Mann, who pushed for a more aggressive 50 basis point hike to 4.25%, citing non-linear inflation risks and the risk that the economy has already crossed the threshold into a high-inflation, tight labour market regime.

On inflation

CPI hit 3.5% in September, with energy prices contributing around one percentage point of that figure. The Bank now expects inflation to reach around 4.5% in Q1 2027 and around 5% in Q2 2027 – around 1.25 percentage points higher than it projected in July. Brent crude averaged $108 per barrel and UK natural gas 216 pence per therm over the 15 working days to 27 October – up 38% and 81% respectively since the July Monetary Policy Report.

On second-round effects

The committee acknowledged there is still limited evidence of second-round effects in wage and price-setting – but unanimously judged that the risk has risen materially. Several members noted that firms have been absorbing costs through hedging and margin compression, but that these buffers are only temporary. The Bank warned that households and firms appear more attentive to headline inflation outturns than in the past, raising the risk that 2027 wage settlements come in higher than current expectations.

On the dissenters

Mann argued that projected CPI inflation of 4.9% by mid-2027 – combined with five years of above-target inflation averaging 4.7% – had already damaged credibility and warranted a more forceful response. She said the economy had crossed the statistical threshold into a high inflation, tight labour market regime where second-round effects were more likely to become embedded.

What happens next

Several members were explicit that one rise is unlikely to be sufficient. Pill said a single 25 basis point hike "is unlikely to be sufficient" and that more tightening would be needed in the near term. Greene said additional hikes would likely be required. Lombardelli said there was likely to be a case for a further increase "in the near term." Bailey left the door open to further action, stating that absent news which softens inflationary risks, he could see the argument for another rise. The committee's next scheduled decision is 17 December.

12:00 p.m.: BREAKING: Bank of England raises base rate to 4%

The Bank of England’s decision is in, and the central bank has voted to raise its base rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% – its first rate rise in more than three years.

That ends a run of six consecutive holds dating back to December 2025 – but with swap rates already moving and lenders having repriced in anticipation, attention will turn quickly to what the MPC vote split and Andrew Bailey’s language signal about what comes next.

11:55 a.m.: Latest BoE decision nearly here

Midday is nearly upon us, and with it the Bank of England's latest call on interest rates.

The MPC has had plenty to weigh up – inflation that has surged to 3.5% in September, its highest level since October 2025, a housing market navigating weeks of lender repricing, and the ongoing uncertainty created by the conflict in the Middle East. With two-thirds of mortgage professionals expecting a rise, a 6–3 vote in September already leaning towards tightening, and the Fed and ECB having both made their own calls in recent weeks, the pressure on Andrew Bailey and the MPC has rarely felt more acute.

We'll have the decision and full industry reaction the moment it lands.

11:50 a.m.: Why lenders cutting rates ahead of a rise is not as strange as it sounds

Ten minutes to go – and one of the more counterintuitive stories of the week is worth flagging before the decision lands.

Nationwide, Barclays and Halifax have all cut mortgage rates this week ahead of a decision widely expected to push the base rate higher. Rhys Edwards, head of mortgages at Stratton Wealth Management, said the moves are being driven by swap rates edging down on the back of a fall in oil prices – and that a modest base rate rise can actually give lenders the confidence to sharpen fixed-rate pricing rather than raise it. "We've seen this before where when the Bank of England base rate actually goes up a little bit, it benefits the fixed rates because it gives a bit more confidence of where pricing should be," he said.

"It doesn't look like the lenders are too worried about the potential increase affecting their margins the way they are reducing rates," Edwards added. "That's why I'm feeling it's given a bit more certainty to the lenders of where the market's going."

For brokers, the priority the moment the decision drops is client communication – particularly those on tracker mortgages, which move with the base rate almost immediately. For the majority on fixed rates, the message is one of reassurance: today's decision is already largely priced in.

The midday announcement is now moments away.

11:40 a.m.: How the BoE’s rate stacks up against other global central banks

The Bank of England could be about to join a clutch of major central banks that have recently made moves on rates – though notably, not all in the same direction. The US Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.75%–4.00% on 28 October 2026, in a 10–2 vote, pausing after September’s quarter-point rise and signalling caution as inflation remains elevated. The European Central Bank held its deposit rate at 2.5% on 29 October, warning of risks to economic growth but resisting further tightening for now.

With both the Fed and the ECB having held at their most recent meetings, the BoE faces its own call today – and with two dissenting FOMC members pushing for a further rise and markets pricing a December hike in the US, the global direction of travel remains firmly upward.

Here’s how the rate picture looks across major economies:

11:30 a.m.: What the industry is saying ahead of the decision

With the midday announcement less than half an hour away, Mortgage Introducer has been speaking to brokers and industry figures about what a rise would mean in practice – and the message from the frontline is consistent: don't panic.

Robert Gardner, chief economist at Nationwide, said much of any anticipated move is already baked into swap rates and that the direct impact on fixed-rate lending should therefore be modest. "That change by itself shouldn't have much of an impact on fixed-rate mortgage lending," he said. "It may have implications for variable-rate offerings, but the quarter-point is fairly modest." He added that he was not convinced rates would need to rise as far as markets are currently pricing in. "Wage growth has been well behaved. There is not really much evidence of second-round effects from these higher energy prices," he said.

Joe Stallard, managing director at House and Holiday Home Mortgages, echoed that view. "A lot of it is based on swap rates, and a lot of it is already baked into product pricing," he said. "It's rare that we see knee-jerk reactions off the back of an announcement to pricing."

For Katherine Stagg, founder and managing director at Stagg Mortgage Services, the priority ahead of today's decision has been keeping clients calm. "I have just told my clients personally not to panic but not to ignore it," she said. "A change of the Bank of England base rate doesn't necessarily affect fixed mortgage rates." Stagg said her firm has written more tracker business in recent months than at any point in the last decade – but drew a firm line at first-time buyers, who she said should always be steered towards the security of a fixed rate. Her broader message was one of perspective: "It's just about reassuring people that there are better things to come."

11:20 a.m.: Explainer: How do BoE decisions impact mortgage rates?

It’s a question you’ve probably heard before from your clients – but just in case you’re wondering, here’s the rundown:

When the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee raises or lowers its base rate, it directly influences the cost of borrowing across the UK economy, including mortgages. Tracker mortgages, which are pegged to the base rate, move almost immediately in response to any decision.

Standard variable rate (SVR) mortgages typically follow within weeks, at lenders' discretion. Fixed-rate mortgages are less directly tied to the base rate; instead, they are priced against swap rates, which reflect financial markets' expectations of where the base rate is heading over the coming years.

This means fixed rates can shift ahead of an MPC decision – or independently of one altogether – if market sentiment changes.

11:10 a.m.: Recap of the Bank of England’s latest announcements

The UK’s central bank has held interest rates steady throughout 2026 so far, resisting pressure to move in either direction as it weighs the impact of higher oil prices and the ongoing conflict in Iran on the national economy – though today’s decision could break that run.

Here’s a summary of how the central bank has acted in its latest announcements:

11:00 a.m.: September inflation surge narrows the MPC's options

A worse-than-expected inflation reading has thrown today's decision wide open – and hardened the case for a rise.

UK CPI climbed to 3.5% in September, the ONS confirmed last month, up from 3.1% in August and the highest rate recorded since October 2025. The figure came in higher than most forecasters had anticipated, driven primarily by a surge in motor fuel prices – petrol reached 169.5p per litre in September, while diesel climbed to 192.5p, its highest since July 2022. The reading also marks two full years since inflation was last at or below the Bank's 2% target.

David Hollingworth, associate director at L&C Mortgages, said the scale of the overshoot would cement market expectations for action today. "That will do nothing to ease the recent upward pressure on mortgage rates and is likely to cement expectation of a base rate rise to come in November," he said. "The Bank of England has already stated that the longer that energy prices remain high, the greater the risk of persistent inflation."

Mark Harris, chief executive of SPF Private Clients, said the figures made a move before Christmas look increasingly hard to avoid. "Swap rates have been volatile in recent weeks, resulting in mixed pricing movements by lenders with some trimming rates while others increase pricing," he said. "Borrowers can protect themselves as much as possible by speaking to a whole-of-market broker and locking into a new product sooner rather than later."

John Phillips, chief executive of Just Mortgages and Spicerhaart, pointed to the broader picture – but said the direction of travel was clear. "The rise in CPI inflation to 3.5% reflects renewed cost pressures, particularly around fuel and energy, against a continued backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty," he said. "As ever, expert advice remains critical in helping clients navigate an ever-changing market."

The consensus view: September's inflation data has made a rate rise today look less like a question of if and more a question of by how much.

10:50 a.m.: Here’s what to expect today

Bank of England days are always full of their own unique blend of intrigue and drama – and today’s decision is shaping up to be one of the most consequential of the year.

A Mortgage Introducer poll conducted ahead of the decision found that two-thirds of mortgage professionals expect the MPC to raise the base rate to 4% today. Of 143 respondents, 65% backed a rise, 31% expected a hold, 1% predicted a cut, and 3% said the outcome was too close to call.

That represents a dramatic reversal from September, when 57% backed a hold and just 35% predicted a rise. The swing reflects a market that has had to sharply reassess its expectations following UK inflation climbing to 3.5% in September – well above the Bank’s 2% target – and weeks in which major lenders repriced fixed-rate products upward as swap rates climbed. Goldman Sachs, Barclays and UBS Global Research have all forecast a 25-basis-point rise at today’s meeting, citing persistent inflation and an unresolved conflict in the Middle East.

The MPC’s September vote was 6–3 in favour of a hold, with Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill all dissenting in favour of an immediate rise to 4%. With inflation now 1.5 percentage points above target, that minority view going into today’s meeting looks considerably less like a minority one.

A rise to 4% is now the market’s base case – but with nearly a third of industry professionals still backing a hold, the decision is far from a foregone conclusion.

10:45 a.m.: We’re live!

Welcome along to today’s live blog on the Bank of England decision with Mortgage Introducer! Stay tuned as we provide all the updates from what’s sure to be one of the most closely watched days in the mortgage industry calendar for 2026.

The BoE will be announcing its next call on rates at 12 p.m. today, and we have you covered with all the latest updates and reaction from the mortgage industry.